The Netherlands' gambling tax hike has raised questions about the limits of taxing a regulated market.
The Netherlands’ recent increase in its gambling tax has fallen well short of the government’s revenue expectations, according to a joint monitoring report by the Ministry of Finance and the gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA).
The study highlights how regulatory changes and market dynamics have undermined tax revenues between 2024 and early 2026.
Tax rise delivers far less than forecast
The gambling tax rise happened in two phases. It was first increased from 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 January 2025, followed by another increase to 37.8% on 1 January 2026.
The Treasury had predicted these hikes would generate approximately €108 million ($122.6 million) more in 2025, and an additional €216 million in 2026. However, the actual additional revenue was far lower, registering approximately €2 million extra in 2025 and an estimated €57 million in 2026, relative to 2024 levels.
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